Tropical Depression Ten has formed but is expected to miss Florida as hurricane forms

The depression is expected to become Tropical Storm Jerry by early Wednesday, then strengthen to a hurricane by the weekend.
The tropical outlook on Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2019. National Hurricane Center
The tropical outlook on Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2019. National Hurricane Center
Published September 17
Updated September 17

It’s time to keep an eye on the next tropical system, according to the National Hurricane Center.

A tropical wave the Hurricane Center has been monitoring in the Atlantic strengthened into a cyclone Wednesday morning and is forecast to continue growing. Meteorologists expect Tropical Depression Ten to become Tropical Storm Jerry by Wednesday morning and Hurricane Jerry by Friday as its current cone threatens many already storm-ravaged areas.

Tropical Depression Ten was heading northwest at 12 mph with sustained winds of 30 mph Wednesday morning. Most spaghetti models show the storm hooking back into the Atlantic somewhere between Puerto Rico and the southern Bahamas, but forecasters said it’s too early to predict its path.

A few models show the storm continuing through the Bahamas and toward Florida. The storm’s cone of uncertainty, which shows a potential path, includes most of Puerto Rico, a portion of the Dominican Republic and encroaches on the Bahamas after reaching hurricane strength. It’s expected to reach that area this weekend.

Puerto Rico is still hurting from 2017′s Hurricane Maria and the Bahamas were recently devastated by the immensely powerful Hurricane Dorian.

While trends show the storm heading back out to sea before reaching Florida, Hurricane Humberto could play a big role in its movement. As Humberto fizzles out, it’s creating high pressure south of it. Storms generally steer around those systems. Forecasters are watching to see what kind of high forms in Humberto’s wake before making more predictions.

Even small changes can have a big effect over time, National Weather Service forecaster Austen Flannery said. And trends tend to change.

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